Last updated on June 19th, 2024 at 10:51 am
Some Altcoins that thrived in the last bull cycle may not see half of their previous ATH in this cycle. There are several factors that make it so. One is narrative. Two, is that promising new projects are being created to advance the assumed problems older projects tends to solve. Put differently, in a more appealing way to the general public. These and more are major factors.
1). Looking at Altcoins market as measured by the inverse of Bitcoin dominance, it is still far from what has been seen in previous Altcoin seasons. In the last six months, Bitcoin dominance has been between 51%-56%. Comparing this with the report of previous Altcoin cycle;
1. 2017/2018, BTC dominance dropped from 86% – 38%
2. 2020/2021 BTC dominance dropped from 70% – 38%
To buttress this, I would like to draw your attention to know that since the collapse of the big FTX, only eight Altcoins have reached and broken their previous All Time HigH against BTC 1. RNDR/BTC
2. TRB/BTC
3. INJ/BTC
4. ASTR/BTC
5. SSV/BTC
6. AGIX/BTC
7. TWT/BTC
Stay tuned. You will get to know that shortly.
8. BNB/BTC
2). Another factor this, is the lack of spike in huge retail investors inflows into the market besides the ETFs institutional inflows which focuses more on Bitcoin. Take for instance, available data has shown that;
Coinbase recorded a whooping $177billion of retail investors trading volume in Q4 of 2021. In Q1 of this of this year 2024, it was $56billion (68%) down. Similar data pattern has been recorded about retail investors trading volumes in other offshore crypto exchanges.
3). As if that’s not enough, the web traffic numbers of exchanges is significantly low. There’s a decline in App store downloads and rankings. E.g. Coinbase App ranks 293 currently. Though it peaked at 49 in early March this year. Comparing that with previous cycles, Coinbase was ranked No.1 both in May and October of 2021.
4. Another important metric is the social sentiment data. Let’s use Twitter (now X) for an example. In May 2024, LunarCrush reported that the number of mentions about different crypto projects is “quite low”. Even the ones that where mentioned where not sustained. In addition, content creators have also reported a decline in subscribers and view growth in this cycle unlike what it used to be in previous cycles. From YouTube crypto content to Google searches, there is way more report of decline unlike before.
It is important to note that the recent memecoins surge or frenzy on X is not in any way considered an Altcoin season.Thus, there’s what is called Altcoin seasons chart or index. Memecoins rally are usually a resort to some sort of game when the stock market is down. So, make no mistake about that.
From the above, it is obvious we’re not in Altcoin season yet. This brings me to the question of why and when will it be?
